Forecasts within the commercial vehicle market project that the market may reach over 320,000 new van registrations by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 11.3%.
However, for used vans, the outlook is significantly more positive. Transactions forecast to almost one million units, while this represents a 0.9% decline compared to 2024, it is 11.9% above 2019 levels.
This shows a substantial shift between the two markets since 2020, as buyers are opting for affordably priced used vans over newer expensive models. This is supported from an article in our August 2025 Fleet News Round Up (Opens in new window) ,where it states that used vehicles are being adopted by more than half of UK fleets.
While the used market is performing well, it still faces challenges, as higher mileage vehicles could present a challenge for valuations due to extended fleet replacement cycles and greater variation in conditions.
Additionally the forecast residual values (RVs) in the used van market have been revised down by an average of 1.5% compared with the previous month, reflecting typical seasonal trends and economic uncertainty.
Moreover, when it comes to electric vans, they now account for 8.8% of the new van market, however this only halfway to the target set by the ZEV mandate (16%). In the used market, electric van values are expected to remain unstable due to limited data, buyer hesitancy and cost barriers compared to diesel and petrol models counterparts. Pricing for electric vans will need to be more competitive in order for the used electric van market to reach maturity.